2009年6月アーカイブ

UNITED STATES

Despite a focus on reviving the economy, the new president, Barack Obama, should be able to push through a reform increasing the number of Americans covered by health insurance and measures to reduce greenhouse gases. However, resistance from Republicans will be fierce and his effort to promote greater bipartisanship does not seem to be yielding results. Mr Obama's Democrats should be able to win the mid-term elections in November 2010 and keep their majorities in both houses of Congress.

Economic policy is now focused on containing the financial crisis and the economic downturn. A major fiscal stimulus package was approved in February, raising the federal deficit by US$787bn over the next ten years. The financial crisis will also mean that the government will have to take on more private-sector debt, and full-scale nationalisation of some banks is now likely. This and the direct hit from the economic downturn will lead to a dramatic deterioration in public finances in 2008-10. After an initial improvement, deficits will still remain substantial in subsequent years, but a fiscal crisis, leading to spiralling interest rates, is unlikely.

We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank) to keep its interest rates at 0-0.25% in 2009 and 2010. It will also continue to support financial markets with ample provision of liquidity, including purchases of government bonds. An economic recovery and concerns about stimulating excessive inflation will initially only lead the Fed to phase out unorthodox measures.

GDP will contract sharply in 2009 and growth will be feeble in 2010 as a result of the severe weakness in the financial sector and the strains on household balance sheets. The crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in financial conditions for households and companies, a downturn in the labour market and a collapse in confidence. Even in subsequent years, the pace of economic growth will remain much weaker than during the recent boom, as it will take time for earlier imbalances to be absorbed.

Inflation will turn negative in 2009, mainly reflecting the sharp decline in commodity prices since mid-2008. Inflation will remain low in 2010 owing to still weak economic growth. We expect the US dollar to fluctuate at around US$1.32:€1 in 2009 but to weaken moderately in subsequent years. The current-account deficit should narrow as a result of a decline in imports.

JAPAN

The next general election must be held by September 2009, but could be called earlier. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faces a bruising defeat in the election, opening the way for the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to take power. A political realignment may well ensue after the election, but there is also the risk that Japan could face a series of unstable governments rising and falling in quick succession.

Japan's fiscal position is extremely weak, and will be made worse by the ongoing recession and the impact of the government's stimulus packages. The government will not achieve a balanced primary budget (that is, excluding debt repayments) in the forecast period. The budget deficit will average 4.8% of GDP in 2009-13.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ, the central bank) is likely to keep its main policy interest rate, the target for the overnight call rate (OCR), at 0.1% in 2009. It will now focus on unconventional policy measures to boost the monetary base. As the economy begins to move out of recession in the latter part of 2010, the BOJ will raise the OCR steadily, bringing it to 2% by 2013.

The yen will strengthen gradually against the US dollar in the forecast period. Vast numbers of loans taken out in yen in the past few years to invest in assets denominated in the currencies of emerging markets will continue to be liquidated and the proceeds converted into yen. Japan will enjoy uninterrupted current-account surpluses averaging 2% of GDP in 2009-13.

The economy will suffer a severe recession in 2009 and will register negligible growth in 2010. The sharp contraction expected in 2009 will be the main reason why annual average GDP will shrink by 0.5% in the forecast period. However, real GDP forecasts would be lower than in other developed countries regardless of the current volatility, owing to the expected contraction in Japan's labour force of almost 1% a year in 2009-13.

Japan is the third-largest economy in the world in purchasing power parity terms and the second-largest at market exchange rates. It also boasts one of the world's largest markets, with a population of 127m. Overall, the Japanese market will remain challenging for foreign companies, reflecting the high quality demanded by Japanese consumers and the difficulty of doing business in an environment that remains opaque.

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WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Federal Reserve extended the lifespan Thursday of most of the liquidity facilities put in place to contain the global financial crisis, including swap lines with foreign central banks, but also scaled back some domestic programs proving less necessary as markets gradually recover.

The Fed is extending the swap lines to provide dollars to foreign central banks, as well as most of the facilities set up to help unfreeze U.S. markets, until Feb. 1, 2010. They were all set to expire at the end of October.

"Conditions in financial markets have improved in recent months, but market functioning in many areas remains impaired and seems likely to be strained for some time," the Fed said in a statement.

The swap lines were extended for 13 central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Denmark's Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank. The Bank of Japan will consider the extension at its next monetary policy meeting, it said.

Domestic programs extended include the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, or AMLF, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, or CPFF, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, or PDCF, and the Term Securities Lending Facility, or TSLF.

Dow Jones Newswires

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TOKYO, June 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday upgraded its economic assessment for the second straight month, as improvements in exports and output fuel hopes the worst of the recession is over.

The central bank said that the economy, after deteriorating significantly, had begun to stop worsening. In the coming months, Japan's economy is likely to show clearer evidence of levelling out, the BOJ said.

Following is the text of a statement issued by the central bank after its two-day policy board.

Statement on Monetary Policy

1.At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:

The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.1 percent.

2.Japan's economic conditions, after deteriorating significantly, have begun to stop worsening. Domestic private demand has continued to weaken against the background of declining corporate profits and the worsening employment and income situation.

On the other hand, exports and production have begun to turn upward and public investment has also increased.

In the coming month, Japan's economy is likely to show clearer evidence of leveling out over time. Meanwhile, financial conditions have generally remained tight, although there have been signs of improvement.

CPI inflation (excluding fresh food) has recently moderated reflecting the declines in the prices of petroleum products and the stabilization of food prices, and, with increasing slackness evident in supply and demand conditions, will likely become negative.

3. With inventory adjustments having proceeded both at home and abroad, economic activity will be greatly influenced by developments in final demand.

The Bank's baseline scenario through fiscal 2010, in which expectations of both medium- to long-term growth and inflation are assumed to remain generally unchanged, projects that the economy will start recovering and the rate of decline in prices will moderate from the latter half of fiscal 2009, supported partly by the positive effects of measures to stabilize the financial system and of fiscal and monetary policy measures, in addition to a recovery in overseas economies and improvements in conditions in global financial markets.

If these development continue, there are prospects for Japan's economy to return to a sustainable growth path with price stability in the longer run. However the outlook is attended by a significant level of uncertainty stemming mainly from developments in overseas economics and global financial markets.

4. With regard to risk factors, those that demand attention in the area of economic activity are the continued high downside risks to the economy stemming from future developments in the global financial and economic situation, changes in medium- to long-term growth expectations, and financial conditions in Japan.

Regarding the outlook for prices, there is a possibility that inflation will decline more than expected if the downside risk to the economy materialize or medium- to long-term inflation expectations decline.

5. The Bank, paying attention for the time being to the downside risks to economic activity and prices, will continue to exert its utmost efforts as the central bank to facilitate the return of Japan's economy to a sustainable growth path with price stability.

Statement on Monetary Policy

reuters.com

The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries. SDRs are allocated to member countries in proportion to their IMF quotas. The SDR also serves as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations. Its value is based on a basket of key international currencies.

Why was the SDR created and what is it used for today?

The Special Drawing Right (SDR) was created by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. A country participating in this system needed official reserves--government or central bank holdings of gold and widely accepted foreign currencies--that could be used to purchase the domestic currency in world foreign exchange markets, as required to maintain its exchange rate. But the international supply of two key reserve assets-- gold and the U.S. dollar--proved inadequate for supporting the expansion of world trade and financial development that was taking place. Therefore, the international community decided to create a new international reserve asset under the auspices of the IMF.

However, only a few years later, the Bretton Woods system collapsed and the major currencies shifted to a floating exchange rate regime. In addition, the growth in international capital markets facilitated borrowing by creditworthy governments. Both of these developments lessened the need for SDRs.

Today, the SDR has only limited use as a reserve asset, and its main function is to serve as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations. The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members. Holders of SDRs can obtain these currencies in exchange for their SDRs in two ways: first, through the arrangement of voluntary exchanges between members; and second, by the IMF designating members with strong external positions to purchase SDRs from members with weak external positions.

SDR valuation

The value of the SDR was initially defined as equivalent to 0.888671 grams of fine gold--which, at the time, was also equivalent to one U.S. dollar. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, however, the SDR was redefined as a basket of currencies,today consisting of the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, and U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar-value of the SDR is posted daily on the IMF's website. It is calculated as the sum of specific amounts of the four currencies valued in U.S. dollars, on the basis of exchange rates quoted at noon each day in the London market.

The basket composition is reviewed every five years to ensure that it reflects the relative importance of currencies in the world's trading and financial systems. In the most recent review in November 2005, the weights of the currencies in the SDR basket were revised based on the value of the exports of goods and services and the amount of reserves denominated in the respective currencies which were held by other members of the IMF. These changes became effective on January 1, 2006. The next review by the Executive Board will take place in late 2010.

The SDR interest rate

The SDR interest rate provides the basis for calculating the interest charged to members on regular (non-concessional) IMF loans, the interest paid and charged to members on their SDR holdings, and the interest paid to members on a portion of their quota subscriptions. The SDR interest rate is determined weekly and is based on a weighted average of representative interest rates on short-term debt in the money markets of the SDR basket currencies.

SDR allocations

Under its Articles of Agreement, the IMF may allocate SDRs to members in proportion to their IMF quotas. Such an allocation provides each member with a costless asset on which interest is neither earned nor paid. However, if a member's SDR holdings rise above its allocation, it earns interest on the excess; conversely, if it holds fewer SDRs than allocated, it pays interest on the shortfall. The Articles of Agreement also allow for cancellations of SDRs, but this provision has never been used. The IMF cannot allocate SDRs to itself.

There are two kinds of allocations:

General allocations of SDRs have to be based on a long-term global need to supplement existing reserve assets. General allocations are considered every five years, although decisions to allocate SDRs have been made only twice. The first allocation was for a total amount of SDR 9.3 billion, distributed in 1970-72. The second allocation was distributed in 1979-81 and brought the cumulative total of SDR allocations to SDR 21.4 billion.

A proposal for a special one-time allocation of SDRs was approved by the IMF's Board of Governors in September 1997 through the proposed Fourth Amendment of the Articles of Agreement. This allocation would double cumulative SDR allocations to SDR 42.8 billion. Its intent is to enable all members of the IMF to participate in the SDR system on an equitable basis and correct for the fact that countries that joined the Fund after 1981--more than one fifth of the current IMF membership--have never received an SDR allocation. The Fourth Amendment will become effective when three fifths of the IMF membership (111 members) with 85 percent of the total voting power accept it. Currently, 131 members with 77.68 percent of total voting power had accepted the proposed amendment. Approval by the United States, with 16.75 percent of total votes, would put the amendment into effect.

IMF

Is China overstating its true rate of growth?

PART of the recent optimism in world markets rests on the belief that China's fiscal-stimulus package is boosting its economy and that GDP growth could come close to the government's target of 8% this year. Some economists, however, suspect that the figures overstate the economy's true growth rate and that Beijing would report 8% regardless of the truth. Is China cheating?

Economists have long doubted the credibility of Chinese data and it is widely accepted that GDP growth was overstated during the previous two downturns. In 1998-99, during the Asian financial crisis, China's GDP grew by an average of 7.7%, according to official figures. However, using alternative measures of activity, such as energy production, air travel and imports, Thomas Rawski of the University of Pittsburgh calculated that the growth rate was at best 2%. Other economists reckon that Mr Rawski was too pessimistic. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics, a research firm in Beijing, estimates GDP growth was around 5% in 1998-99, for example. The top chart, plotting the official growth rate against estimates by Dragonomics, clearly suggests that some massaging of the government statistics may have gone on. The biggest adjustment seems to have been made in 1989, the year of political protests in Tiananmen Square. Officially, GDP grew by over 4%; Dragonomics reckons it actually declined by 1.5%.

China's growth in the first quarter of this year has led some to conclude that the government is up to the same old tricks. According to official figures, GDP was 6.1% higher than a year earlier. Yet electricity production in the first quarter was 4% lower than it had been a year earlier; in comparison, production grew by 16% in the year to the first quarter of 2008. In the past, GDP and electricity output have moved broadly together, although it is not a one-to-one relationship (see bottom chart). But the gap between the two lines is now wider than it has ever been. Given that power statistics are less likely to have been tampered with than politically sensitive GDP figures, is this evidence that the latter have been fiddled?

Probably not. Paul Cavey, an economist at Macquarie Securities, argues that the discrepancy is explained by the fact that energy-guzzling heavy industries, such as steel and aluminium, bore the brunt of the slowdown last year. Mr Cavey calculates that the metals industry accounted for 40% of the growth in electricity consumption in 2001-07, but only 16% of the increase in industrial production. Steel output fell by more than 10% in the year to the fourth quarter, so it is hardly surprising that energy use dropped.

Distrust of the GDP numbers has prompted Capital Economics, a research firm based in London, to create its own proxy of economic activity, which includes electricity output, domestic freight volumes, cargo traffic at ports, passenger transport and floor area under construction. It suggests that GDP growth slowed to only 4% in the year to the first quarter. However, it tracks mostly industrial activity, and thus excludes two-fifths of the economy, most notably services, which are growing faster.

Then there are government tax revenues. These have fallen by 10% over the past year, compared with a surge of 35% in early 2008, suggesting that incomes and output have tumbled. But Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, says that revenues were inflated in early 2008 by a sharp rise in taxes from the boom in land sales, which has since subsided. Another possible distortion is that local officials may be hiding tax revenue to make their finances appear worse, in order to get more money from Beijing to finance infrastructure projects.

Overall, Dragonomics's Mr Kroeber thinks that GDP growth in the year to the first quarter of 2009 was not significantly overstated. One reason why others are more suspicious is the fact that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) does not publish quarterly GDP figures as developed economies do; its year-on-year changes give it more scope to smooth growth rates (for example, output probably did stall over the past two quarters). To be fair, many developing countries do this as well. One reason is that seasonal adjustment is tricky in such countries where the shift from agriculture to industry changes the pattern of seasonality over time, says Mr Kroeber.

Cutting the fudge
And for all today's misgivings, Beijing's growth estimates consistently proved to be too low until recently. One of the quirks of Chinese data has long been that the provinces reported higher numbers than the central government did--a phenomenon that was put down to the fact that local officials inflated growth rates in order to get promoted. Yet the NBS GDP figures have almost always been revised upwards. For example, growth in 2007 was first reported as 11.4%, but in January it was marked up to 13%.

The NBS has improved its data-gathering methods in recent years, by extending its coverage of services, for example. This month Beijing also introduced new penalties for officials who falsify statistics. But the real test is whether the government itself is prepared to publish politically embarrassing bad news. There are encouraging signs that it is becoming more open. On May 14th an essay on the NBS website by Xu Xianchun, the bureau's deputy director, was surprisingly frank about some of the flaws in Chinese statistics. Mr Xu admitted, for example, that the retail-sales numbers include some purchases by companies and the government, which should not be counted as consumption. He estimated that consumer spending in the first quarter grew by 9%, compared with the 15% increase reported for retail sales.

Andy Rothman, an economist at CLSA, a regional broker, believes that Chinese statistics are much more trustworthy than they used to be. This is partly because there are alternative numbers to go on; CLSA, for example, produces its own purchasing-managers' index. There are also more private-sector economists keeping tabs on China than there were a decade ago. The more eyes there are on China, and the more crucial its economic performance becomes for the rest of the world, the harder it is for officials to tamper with the speedometer.

Economist.com

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直近の為替価格水準が設定期間中の変動幅のどのあたりの位置にあるかを把握することができます。
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